Description: US President Donald Trump announced that a 10 – day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been concluded which both countries are willing to abide. The framework of the ceasefire outlines that Israel maintains the right to defend itself against any incoming attacks, Lebanon commits efforts to constrain Hezbollah, officials on both sides are free to extend the ceasefire beyond the deadline by their own convenience. Prime minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would remain present in southern Lebanon 10 kilometers in the country as they would maintain a buffer zone in case of any incoming attacks. The ceasefire arrives after extensive diplomatic efforts from Pakistan, the US and Iran which are engaged in stalled negotiations that are expected to continue.
Impact: The ceasefire allows the US to exercise slight leverage in the expected negotiation with Iran in the upcoming days, however, it also gives Iran room to attempt and include Lebanon and its proxy groups in a larger peace agreement. The ceasefire’s short timeframe most likely would allow Iran and the US to extend their separate ceasefire in the potential negotiations within the upcoming days which in turn enables both sides to reengage in negotiations. Positions from both sides still differ extensively, which likely signals a protracted diplomatic process within the next two to three months. Lebanon and Israel’s ceasefire is contingent on the US and Iran continuing their separate negotiations which in turn allows global energy and economic markets some breathing room and temporary respite.