Description: The Israeli military has issued an emergency evacuation order concerning citizens in the northern cities of the Gaza Strip. IDF has killed more than 100 people in the past couple of hours, most of whom were civilians attempting to reach humanitarian aid. The evacuation order comes on the back of the planned expansion of military operations in the Gaza Strip. US President Donald Trump, feeling victorious for having secured the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Iran, announced that significant progress has been made in recent negotiations of ending Israel’s war in Gaza and the West Bank, without outlining details. Hamas, Israel’s main opponent, was reportedly facing domestic backlash as more clans were forming a stiff opposition to the group’s activities in the enclave and the general position in the negotiations. The enclave is still under enormous pressure from the ravaging humanitarian crisis and the dysfunctional Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
Impact: Hamas’ depletion in structure, lacking leadership and with most of its financial backing from Iran currently nonexistent could be pushed towards making significant concessions in the peace talks. The positive signals gathered from the White House, should be perceived with a dose of skepticism, since the Israeli offensive continues, while the US used the previous negotiations to smokescreen Iran during the 12 – day war. Outside pressure from rival groups, coupled with the general disapproval of Hamas in Gaza and the mounting pressure from the US which is reentering the peace negotiations on the back of the ceasefire with Iran and Israel, indicates that some sort of a peace framework is in the works between the warring parties and the mediators. Iran is currently isolated facing pressure from the US and Israel, while the country’s strategic orientation is currently heavily invested in securing internal stability, which signals that Iran would have limited contribution towards the situation in Gaza and couldn’t influence Hamas’ decision making in their current state of bilateral affairs.