Description: Incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main opposition rival, Gadi Eisenkot were locked in a virtual stalemate in Israel’s parliamentary elections. The latest projections put Netanyahu slightly ahead of Eisenkot with the Likud bloc of parties gathering between 54 and 55 seats. Eisenkot’s Yashar bloc of parties managed to secure between 49 and 51 seats while the Arab alliance of parties secured between 17 and 19 parliamentary seats. The final vote count in the election will be announced on 30 Oct, while the official results will be published on 04 Nov. Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot have the majority to form a government, and both blocs of parties would have to negotiate a potential coalition with the Arab group of parties. The vote count is still ongoing and votes from Israeli soldiers and diplomats are yet to be tallied in the final ballot count. Upon the conclusion of the final results, Israeli President Herzog would consult party leaders and select the winning coalition. The coalition would have between 42 and 104 days to form a government. In case coalition talks collapse, new round of elections will be held. Prime Minister Netanyahu would remain in a caretaking capability until the coalition talks are completed.
Impact: Upon the conclusion of the final vote count, the stalemate is highly likely to remain in place, forcing both political blocs towards coalition negotiations. The formation of a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot is an unlikely prospect since it would effectively result in a political suicide for Eisenkot and a public betrayal of his constituents. Netanyahu is likely to poach candidates from the opposition bloc in order to form a coalition, but he is unlikely to form a coalition government with the Arab parties. This likely leaves Eisenkot in an advantageous position to engage in coalition talks with the Arab parties, combining the negotiations with approaching members of Netanyahu’s camp. He would have to agree on substantial concessions with his political bloc in order to coalesce with the Arab parties which likely indicates prolonged coalition negotiations that could be exploited and even politically hijacked by Netanyahu. Netanyahu is likely left with little maneuvering room despite edging forward in the primary vote count. The prospect for a new round of elections is likely to materialize on the basis of prolonged coalition talks beyond the 42 days’ timeline. In this case Netanyahu is highly likely to be able to maneuver out of the crisis and jump at the forefront for the premiership. Under the current conditions, Eisenkot and Netanyahu likely have virtually equal chances of forming the next government.