Description: US President Donald Trump met with his national security advisors where they discussed and assessed the latest proposal by Iran which stipulated a mutual unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump previously stated that even though the proposal was a large step forward it did not satisfy the negotiating position of the US as they wanted to put the nuclear file first on the dispute agenda. Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, finished the diplomatic tour in Moscow where he met with Russian president Vladimir Putin as he expressed strong support for Iran’s sovereignty and resistance towards the US and Israeli intervention. Trump would soon face domestic pressure as the Wartime Powers resolution act is set to be voted in the US Senate. Lebanon and Israel despite extending their ceasefire to three weeks both reported ceasefire violations and continued the day-to-day confrontations in eastern Lebanon.
Impact: The fragile ceasefire is likely to hold in the immediate term, with diplomatic and political posturing escalating that compounds towards a renewed confrontation between the US and Iran. Iran has demonstrated far larger flexibility in negotiating a potential peace agreement while the US has resorted towards a complete strategy of economic pressure and insistence on its negotiating demands which likely compromises Pakistan’s position as a mediator which is currently having trouble in bringing both sides back to the negotiating table. The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to continue to affect global energy markets and cause further fluctuations on economic prospects. With the negotiations currently stalled and breakthrough scenarios low on the priority scale, Iran and the US are set for renewed confrontations in the short to mid – term period, unless Pakistan and by extension China manages to leverage its diplomatic clout and force continued diplomacy.