Description: US Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi briefly discussed the ongoing developments of the war between the US and Iran through Qatari mediators on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Iranian officials stated that Araghchi and his team outlined and reconfirmed Iran’s position to halt hostilities which included the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing Iran’s foreign assets and the cessation of hostilities across the Middle East, primarily in Lebanon. In return Iran has reportedly agreed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and guarantee freedom of navigation for all ships in the Persian Gulf. The information arrived soon after Trump threatened Iran with annihilation through his speech at the UNGA, where the Iranian delegation was present.
Impact: The indirect meeting is highly likely a formal attempt to nominally restore diplomatic channels between the warring countries and it would unlikely bring any major development on the diplomatic track. The US and Iran are likely maintaining a position of hostility and deep mistrust in the diplomatic process, considering that it was used to launch attacks on Iran on several occasions previously. Both countries are in a precarious position domestically with Trump fighting for political survival while Iran’s inflation levels are spiraling out of control. Nevertheless, both Iran and the US are highly likely going to aim at maintaining the current stagnant phase of the war in the short – term and avoid serious military escalation. Political divisions in both countries are likely driving the ununified negotiating front on both sides, which is highly likely to guarantee some form of military escalation in the mid to long – term period.