Description: The Tigray’s People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) stated that it plans on reinstating the previous administration in the region and replacing the interim government imposed by the provisions of the Praetoria Agreement which ended the civil war in Ethiopia in 2022. TPLF accuses the government of withholding regional administrative funds and constantly provoking an armed conflict which effectively violates the Praetoria Agreement. The opposition armed group, turned political party, also stated that plans to restore ties with regional groups and countries supportive of their cause. Tensions have been constantly rising between Ethiopia’s federal government and the TPLF for over a year with limited armed conflicts reported in Jan this year as well as an isolated case of drone strikes.
Impact: TPLF’s reinstitution of the previous government would likely escalate tensions with Abiy Ahmed’s federal government in times where international and regional organizations lack the capacity to prevent another armed conflict. The civil war between the TPLF and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) resulted in the deaths of more than 600 thousand people and backtracked the country’s potential for several decades causing massive humanitarian crisis. The move by the TPLF and the lack of response from the federal government could potentially stoke renewed tensions and nullify the Praetoria Agreement. TPLF’s statements of restoring ties with countries and groups supportive of their cause likely indicates that the group is in a phase of mobilization of resources and consolidation of power which in turn signals a more hostile stance towards the government and its military. The region is plundered by the ongoing crises such as Sudan’s civil war, South Sudan’s political and security crisis and DR Congo’s insurgency which likely risks a broader cross – border crisis in case a renewed conflict emerges in Ethiopia. Immediate implosion of tensions is unlikely, however, the move by the TPLF could significantly endanger the Praetoria Agreement and raise hostilities in the short to mid – term period.