Description: Ethiopia’s army chief, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, accused Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea of providing the newly formed Alliance for Survival with the necessary support to wage war against Ethiopia’s government. He stated that without regional support, the Alliance wouldn’t stand a chance against the military let alone launching an entire military campaign. In the latest round of fighting, ENDF reportedly seized the city of Alamata, which is located in southern Tigray and serves as a strategic entry point for the region, providing logistical and communications support for regional troops. The Tigrayan Peace Force, a local militia allied with the ENDF, helped the Ethiopian military to seize the town, emphasizing the use of local forces by the government. Further advances were already planned northwards, in the cities of Mekoni and Maychew. ENDF also targeted Tigrai TV with drones, disrupting the TPLF’s media service and cutting off communications. TPLF fighters seized control of the town of Erebti in the Afar region and were further pushing towards Afdera, approximately 100km to the east of Erebti, potentially targeting the ENDF’s logistical and support corridors from Djibouti’s ports. Doctors without Borders (MSF) has reported a rapid increase in the number of patients in local hospitals from 180 to 420 in just 48 hours, while more than 150 thousand people were displaced in the latest round of fighting.
Impact: Ethiopia’s early accreditation of foreign support to the Alliance of Survival from Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea, likely aims to politically delegitimize the groups on a local level and insulate the Alliance for Survival as the major factor for destabilization in the country. The rapid and multi – fronted escalation in the fighting highly likely indicates that the ENDF would target major strategic points in Tigray, such as the capital Makelle, and work towards the tactical dissolution of the Alliance for Survival, hoping to achieve strategic discoordination within the Alliance for Survival in the mid to long – term. TPLF’s advances in the eastern Afar region likely point towards targeting of Ethiopia’s major logistical hubs from the ports in Djibouti and withdrawal towards the bordering regions where the Alliance could wage asymmetrical, guerilla warfare against the ENDF. With the evident absence of mediation or peace building efforts, the conflict is likely to escalate in the short to mid – term period making diplomatic and political engagement an unlikely probability in the short – term.