Description: Ethiopia’s interim government representative in Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, called for TPLF fighters to surrender to the government troops and reintegrate under the provisions of the Praetoria Agreement. The call wasn’t well -received by the commander of the TPLF forces, Lt. General Fisseha Kidanu, who stated that his organization would continue opposing government troops in the region. The ENDF has intensified attacks in recent weeks, causing several thousand Ethiopians to flee across the border into Kenya. Drone attacks as well as enlarged ground presence enabled the ENDF control over larger areas in Ethiopia’s east, north and northwestern regions. Since the ENDF advances, the TPLF has largely modified its tactics and adopted a guerilla style warfare campaign.
Impact: The TPLF’s tactical and strategic potential is highly likely deflated since the beginning of the insurgency earlier this year. The organization is likely to largely disintegrate within the Alliance for Survival and resort towards limited operations in the rural areas of the Tigray region. Ethiopia’s government is likely pivoting towards political consolidation in the region which is likely to result in temporary stabilization of the security situation in Tigray. The war is likely to continue in the short to mid – term period with limited skirmishes which have a limited potential to escalate in the long – term in case a diplomatic resolution to the insurgency does not materialize.