Description: US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, announced that the US would impose additional sanctions on several Cuban military companies and individuals. The companies in question are Technoimport, which the US says that Cuba uses for importing Russian, Chinese and Iranian military equipment, Union de la Industria Militar and EMI Yuri Gagarin, which are responsible for manufacturing and repairing military equipment for the Cuban army and navy. Cuban Defense Minister, Alvaro Lopez Miera and the Chief of Cuba’s General Staff, Roberto Legra Sotolongo were also put on sanctions lists. The sanctions are part of a long – running campaign by the US to change the political and economic system in the country which Secretary of State Rubio calls a national security threat to the US. UN experts have warned that Cuba’s current socio – economic condition would eventually result in a total collapse of the country’s economy, social and healthcare systems, calling the US sanctions illegal and against international law.
Impact: The US is likely to intensify its sanctions campaign against Cuba counting on the eventual collapse of the country which would highly likely come at the expense of the mounting humanitarian crisis. Cuba has so far offered concessions to the US which the US likely considers insufficient as its ultimate goal is to change the political and economic system in the country and decouple Cuba from its ties with China and Russia. Cuba is likely left with little to no room to maneuver in terms of negotiations with the US or other concessions, however, the potential for civil uprising, protests or larger anti – government movement is currently low. Continued US sanctions and trade embargo campaigns would highly likely result in further economic deterioration which would likely cause migratory waves and localized civil anti – government movements. The prospects of US military intervention in Cuba are currently unlikely, however, considering that diplomacy has so far failed to deliver, the possibility of a special operation against the Cuban leadership is gradually rising in the mid to long – term period.