Description: Iran – backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked government troops supported by Saudi Arabia at several locations in northern Yemen and southern Saudi Arabia. In Yemen, the Houthis attacked military camps of the internationally recognized government in exile supported by Saudi Arabia in the Marib and Hadramout provinces where the Houthis stated that troops backed by Saudi Arabia were amassing in numbers. Saudi Arabia has stated that its civilian infrastructure and oil pipelines have been continuously targeted by Houthi ballistic missiles and drones as a response to the troops’ amassment. The Houthis imposed a naval blockade in Bab El Mandeb Strait in solidarity with Iran and due to Saudi Arabia’s naval blockade from the civil war in Yemen in 2015. Saudi Arabia’s intelligence service warned that the Houthis were closely cooperating with Iranian – sponsored militias in Iraq and warned that a coordinated attack on the nation’s energy and civilian infrastructure was planned. Despite the attacks, Saudi Arabia’s government announced a joint maritime security alliance with regional countries and reiterated its attempts to deescalate the conflict.
Impact: The escalation from the Houthis in recent weeks is likely a preemptive strategy dictated by Iran in order to demonstrate the regional and global consequences in case the US reinstates its attacks. Coordination efforts between the Houthis and other Iranian – backed proxy groups in the region likely raises the geographical scope of the US – Iran war and threatens long – term regional instability. Saudi Arabia would likely respond by intensifying political platforms such as the regional maritime alliance and is likely to avoid escalating the confrontation with the Houthis in order not to undermine the fragile diplomatic platform of the negotiations between the US and Iran in the short – term period. The Houthis would likely continue to enforce the naval blockade in the Bab El Mandeb Strait, positioning themselves as a major disruptor of maritime shipping in another crucial chokepoint. Temporary skirmishes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are likely to remain active in the short – term, however, any major escalation would be dictated by the outcome of the negotiations between Iran and the US in the near future. In case the Houthis decide to pursue an independent regional strategy irrespective of the war between Iran and the US they would likely escalate the confrontation which would likely lead towards a more sustained retaliatory response from Saudi Arabia which could likely position both sides towards ground military confrontations in the short to mid – term period.