Description: Military convoy carrying members of Russia’s Africa Corps mercenary group and Malian military forces came under attack near the northern town of Anefis. The convoy attack follows a resurgence in high – level coordinated attacks by the FLA and JNIM in Mali, reminiscent of their campaign in Apr. JNIM also managed to attack targets in neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso in late Jun, extending the group’s operational outreach. The attacks happened on the same day as Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, met his counterparts from the AES (Alliance of the Sahel States) in Niamey and pledged continued support for foreign terrorist forces, allegedly supported by France and Ukraine. Recent reports have indicated that the latest surge of coordinated attacks were more sophisticated in nature and managed to inflict severe damages to the alliance of Russian mercenaries and the Malian military. An investigative report conducted by Reuters, stated that vast regions of Mali where JNIM reigns supreme have assimilated under the terrorist group’s leadership.
Impact: JNIM and FLA’s renewed offensive likely indicates deep faultlines within the Malian government which struggles to exert control over the country’s territory, key resource – rich regions and is losing the support from the civil population. Lavrov’s visit to Niamey likely represents a symbolic move of political support as Russia is objectively heavily overleveraged in Africa while sustaining losses on the battlefield with Ukraine. JNIM’s adjustment in civil society management coupled with their incursions into Niger and Burkina Faso highly likely indicate the group’s long – term ambitions to become and integral part of Mali’s social fabric and remain as a ruling force in much of the group’s-controlled territories. France and Ukraine’s interference although not conclusively proven, is highly likely a move to counter Russia’s ambitions to remain the main partner of the Sahel states. The conflict remains active and in a constant state of flux, which is would likely lead towards an internal insurgency that could last for years in the country, effectively causing territorial partition.