Description: The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have issued a calculative response to the latest US peace proposal for the civil war in Sudan which caused one of the gravest humanitarian crisis in modern history. Following UN reports of a looming encirclement of the strategic city of El – Obeid, the US has revamped diplomatic channels and proposed a 90 – day humanitarian ceasefire, where the establishment of a mediating body would facilitate negotiations between the SAF and the RSF. The proposal also included the establishment of a civil – led government and a military unification between the warring parties. SAF’s response was mostly positive, however, the ruling military government stated that RSF forces would have to withdraw from all the occupied cities since the war started in 2023 in order to give its full consent towards the peace initiative. The latest developments mostly focused in and around the central Kordofan state, where the SAF succeeded in pushing out RSF forces from several strongholds, while the RSF continued resorting towards enhanced drone warfare operations.
Impact: The strategic complexities of the civil war in Sudan such as the UAE’s diplomatic and soft – power outreach to global powers such as the US would highly likely impede the current peace proposal, despite calculative positive signs from both warring parties. The SAF would highly likely aim to monetize their recent operational gains and expel RSF forces from Sudan’s border with Ethiopia and focus its operations in preventing the encirclement of the strategic city of El – Obeid, while also pressuring the RSF on the Chadian border through their allied Joint Forces militia. The RSF is highly likely to respond with enhanced drone warfare campaign, enforcing the encirclement of El – Obeid while avoiding direct confrontation with SAF’s forces. In recent months the war has predominantly transferred to increase drone usage with limited ground incursions which likely indicates the persumably equal operational capabilities on both sides. The US diplomatic rapprochement to the civil war although significant is highly unlikely to bring forward any substantial change due to the low political capital behind the initiative.