Description: Iranian forces managed to shot down a US Army AH – 64 Apache gunship helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz using Shahed drones. The pilots were subsequently evacuated by a US naval drone and were in stable medical condition. This prompted the US to respond to the attack by launching airstrikes on the port of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm island. Iran responded to the attacks targeting US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait and an air base in Jordan. Israel meanwhile continued pushing its ground offensive in Lebanon further expanding northward towards the city of Tyre, continuing to issue evacuation orders. The Houthis confirmed they launched drones and missiles towards the Israeli port city of Eilat and would enforce a maritime blockade for ships going from or to Israel through the Bab El Mandeb Strait. President Trump has insisted through his public statements that Iran and the US were close to a deal, however, spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament, Ebrahim Azizi, stated that bilateral talks on the nuclear file are not ongoing and the countries are nowhere near an agreement.
Impact: The most recent clashes are likely military posturing by both the US and Iran in order to demonstrate a show of force and capabilities for returning to full – scale war and subsequently gain favorable negotiating positions. Israel’s continued ground and military operations in Lebanon are likely continuing to compromise the negotiations and make it impossible for the diplomatic efforts to take shape or gain any traction. The situation on the ground likely demonstrates that both Iran and the US would continue similar or slightly more upbeat military operations and exchange of aerial attacks in the short to mid – term. Israel’s defiance to engage Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah or Hamas for that matter, through diplomatic means likely poses the sole greatest threat to the peace platform. Attacks are likely to continue with the potential for further escalation, considering the differentiating public statements from both countries which demonstrate the positional distinction on the current state of affairs. The public statements have the potential of being on par with the current military posturing, which likely indicates that backchannel talks are active but delivering limited results in the field of bilateral concessions.