Description: The US Treasury Department has introduced a new package of sanctions against Cuban entities including President Diaz Canel and his family. The new sanctions package applies to the Ministry of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Cuba, the Cuban Institute of Friendship with the Peoples, Amistur Cuba, and the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution. Cuba’s economy is currently in disarray with no gas or fuel, substantially increased cost of living expenses which plunges large portion of the population into severe poverty. The US has enforced an energy blockade for over 4 months, threatening military action in case the Cuban government fails to restructure or disband. Earlier, the US Treasury Department, sanctioned and charged formed President Raul Castro as part of the wider economic and political strangulation of the country.
Impact: The economic pressure is unlikely to dissuade the Cuban government from further resisting, while military action is likely futile at this point since the energy blockade and the sanctions failed to necessitate the expected popular uprising. The US could still opt for a military intervention similar to the one conducted in Venezuela, however, the lack of standing government partners or oppositional figures makes that option currently unlikely. Backchannel talks between the governments are active which likely indicate that both countries could work towards some sort of a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Cuba’s collapsed economy is unlikely to create a popular uprising in the country, which leaves the military option and the negotiations as the likeliest resolution options in the short to mid – term period.