Description: Incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan secured his leadership status as his Contract Party managed to claim a slim majority in Parliament. Pashinyan’s rule has been marked with anti – Russian sentiment, as the Prime Minister managed to secure a peace agreement with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh and commenced the normalization of ties with Turkey. He hosted the European Political Community summit last month where EU leaders gathered to express support in Armenia’s EU ambitions and closer ties to the West. This, however, did not go unnoticed in Moscow, as Russia has threatened to cut energy ties with Armenia over its EU ambitions, warning Pashinyan that the crisis in Ukraine started in a similar fashion. Russia supplies 82% of Armenia’s natural gas and it’s the country’s highest rated trade partner. Before the election Russia imposed trade restrictions in what was perceived as a desperate attempt to influence the election. Pashinyan’s critics, however, argue that the Prime Minister hasn’t let go of his authoritarian practices such as stifling public dissent, arresting and oppressing political opponents.
Impact: Russia’s decades – long economic, political and security entrenchment in Armenia is likely to persist, despite Pashinyan’s pledges to position the country westward. With the Caucasus becoming a key global inland trade route, Armenia’s rapprochement with the US and the EU would likely allow the country to position itself as transition hub, reaping the benefits of the Zangezur corridor in the long – term. Armenia is likely to be faced with domestic political pressure, Russian hybrid attacks and further trade restrictions in the short to mid – term, since the political pro – Russian opposition also managed to secure strong backing. Armenia would likely be placed in a delicate balancing act between Russia and the West in the Caucasus in the long – term since its ties with Russia are based on unilateral dependence, while its political pro – EU agenda is likely to face severe challenges from the pro – Russian opposition.