Description: Cambodia has declared that it plans on taking the maritime dispute case with Thailand to the UN, after Thailand unilaterally pulled out of the 2001 agreement earlier last month. The dispute between the two countries is regarding a 26 thousand square kilometers of sea in the Gulf of Thailand or more commonly known as the Overlapping Claims Area (OCA). This are is estimated to hold approximately 12 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and much larger quantities of oil jointly estimated at about $300 billion. Both countries would appoint representatives to the UN which would most likely work through direct negotiations under the mediatorship by the UN Chief. Thailand has repeatedly renounced the UN’s jurisdiction in its bilateral disputes with Cambodia and insisted on direct negotiations.
Impact: The OCA disputes likely represents a deciding factor in bilateral relations that could either position both countries on a path of armed conflict again or create a framework that would likely work as a diplomatic launchpad for resolving other existing territorial and border disputes. Thailand’s consistent rejection of the UN’s jurisdiction over the dispute is likely an open exploitation of the country’s military, political and economic dominance over Cambodia. Thailand’s diplomatic engagement would likely prove to be crucial to resolving the OCA dispute which in times of global energy crisis could prove to be crucial for the economic stability of both countries. Return to all out war is currently a highly unlikely scenario, instead, Cambodia would likely insist on resolving the dispute rapidly, while Thailand would focus on stalling and enforcing its claims over the OCA, likely betting on a stalled non – resolution to the OCA dispute. Depending on the outcome of the initial diplomatic engagement, bilateral tensions could either rapidly escalate, or a sensible framework for resolving territorial disputes would be established.