Description: Iranian Parliamentary speaker, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that Iran would not agree to additional negotiating conditions imposed by President Trump outlined in the latest diplomatic exchange. Ghalibaf added that the US was not to be trusted since it constantly shifts the negotiating requirements and adds conditions not acceptable to the Iranian government. Trump reportedly halted hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah after talking to both sides separately, although, the situation on the ground remained unchanged as both sides exchanged attacks on 01 Jun, with Israel threatening to bomb Lebanon’s capital. Tasnim, Iran’s IRGC – affiliated media outlet, relayed statements from the chief of IRGC’s Quds forces, Esmail Qaani, who stated that Iran could pull out of the mediated negotiations and impose additional maritime blockades on the Bab El Mandeb Strait using the Houthis in case Israel continues its ground offensive in Lebanon. Trump’s additional conditions primarily focused on changing the draft memorandum’s language elaborating on the nuclear file and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Impact: The latest developments likely signal further prolongation of the ongoing skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz, the aerial attacks on Iranian islands and subsequent retaliation by Iran upon US bases located in the Middle East. Israel would most likely not abide to the terms outlined by President Trump to halt hostilities and would likely remain militarily present in southern Lebanon with high chances of expanding its ground presence towards the outward suburbs of Beirut. Iran’s threat to block the Bab El Mandeb likely presents a countermeasure to the US inconsistence within the negotiating framework and to Israel’s lack of restraint to cease hostilities and ground offensives within Lebanon. The war is unlikely to escalate from its current state as Iran and the US remain in a negotiating and operational standoff, while Israel continues to erode any potential for a diplomatic resolution to the war through its military operations in Lebanon.