Description: Iranian drones and missiles continued to target the Emirates, further causing damages to the country’s oil production infrastructure. Iranian officials have firmly denied that they were launching the most recent attacks throughout official channels and media outlets claiming that in case they were conducting the attacks, Iranian spokespeople would have announced it publicly. The US continued Operation Freedom, claiming that a secure maritime route has been cleared of Iranian mines off the Omani coast and vessels could use the route and US military escort to exit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is set to meet Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi in Beijing to discuss the latest development surrounding the war. Araghchi previously stated that there was no military solution to the war and recent discussions have yielded unexpected progress. US secretary of state, Marco Rubio has declared the war effectively over, arguing that all US objectives have been fulfilled.
Impact: With the US stance on the blockade continuously fluctuating, Iran is likely to resist any further military intervention in the Strait which could potentially escalate the conflict. Backchannel talks are evidently active which are likely to work on a diplomatic reconciliation in the immediate term in case the US continues pursuing the objectives outlined by Operation Freedom. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains complicated as no assurances have been received and the Iranian blockade has not been lifted which likely signals that Iran is determined to outlast the US naval blockade and agree upon the terms of reopening from a less disadvantageous position. The US has obvious difficulties in finding an offramp from the conflict without political ramifications on the home front, which is likely to pressure President Trump towards some form of reengagement on a higher diplomatic level with the Iranian side in the short – term. The ceasefire exists on a provisional basis and likely provides both countries with a marginal space for diplomatic maneuvering and military posturing. The situation remains extremely volatile and is likely to either transpire towards renewed warfare or in case the backchannel talks yield results towards a diplomatic reengagement in the short – term.