Description: The US and Iran exchanged aerial and naval attacks in the Arabian Sea, threatening the ceasefire and downgrading the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Iranian drones and missiles hit the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone setting some of the oil production and refinery operations units on fire while injuring foreign workers on the platforms. US aerial and naval forces stationed in the Arabian Sea, claimed to have neutralized six Iranian fast boats which were trying to further suffocate traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and prevent the exit of two US flagged ships which have been reported to have been escorted by the US military. The UAE and South Korea reported attacks on their respective flagged vessels that were exiting the Strait, with the Emirates also reporting to have intercepted several ballistic missiles and drones aimed at crucial infrastructure on the coastline. Former Israeli prime minister, Naftali Bennet, has stated that Iran’s attacks on the UAE, Israel’s strategic partner, effectively means that wartime conditions have returned.
Impact: The US has added a military component to the economic blockade on Iran which would likely escalate the standoff and position both countries on a warpath once again. The renewed attacks on both sides likely compromise the existing ceasefire and diminish immediate prospects for diplomatic engagement as both sides are poised to escalate attacks. Iran has likely adopted a strategy of inflicting the maximum damage on vessels stranded in the Strait and is currently avoiding immediate escalation of offensive efforts which likely puts pressure on Pakistan to bring about the revival of negotiations. Israel would likely await a larger escalation of attacks to reengage Iran while it continues to violate the virtually non-existent ceasefire with Lebanon, further deteriorating the prospects of diplomacy. The war is unlikely to resume under the previous intensity in the immediate term, although the combination of economic blockades with sporadic exchange of attacks is likely to continue in the short – term. The current landscape indicates that Iran, the US and Israel are set to resume the war in the short to mid – term, unless an intermediate diplomatic offensive is sensibly undertaken by all sides.