Description: The Pakistani military targeted several border outposts of the Afghan Taliban while also targeting strongholds of the Pakistani Taliban near the town of Chaman in the Balochistan province. The attack follows the recent escalation in the cross – border conflict after Pakistan was accused by the Afghan Taliban of targeting a school in the Kunar province last week and a drug rehabilitation center earlier this month. UN’s office of humanitarian affairs (OCHA) has confirmed that Pakistan struck the school in Kunar and destroyed the drug rehabilitation hospital last month. Both countries have been under a Chinese mediated ceasefire which took place earlier this month, however, recent attacks have significantly decreased the effects of the diplomatic process.
Impact: The Chinese mediated ceasefire is likely severely compromised as the cross – border war between the neighbors is poised to escalate in the immediate term. Pakistan’s renewed aggression arrives after BLA separatists and TTP militants increased cross – border attacks which in turn caused Pakistan to directly attack Afghan military outposts maintaining their position that the Afghan Taliban harbor these groups. China has not expedited diplomatic efforts to reassert itself in the ceasefire process which likely signals that Beijing is struggling with containing the fallout of the economic crisis caused by the war in Iran and preparing for the much-expected leaders’ summit between Xi and Trump in May. Cross – border clashes and Pakistani military operations are likely to intensify, however, a return to widescale conflict is currently unlikely.