Description: The ruling military junta in Myanmar following low outturn in their proposition to negotiate with rebel groups has launched a renewed offensive in the country’s northern parts. The military junta has launched new offensives in the city of Sagaing, attempting to neutralize or force a retreat of local rebel forces northwards where the junta aims at capturing the city of Indaw. In the eastern parts of the country the junta is still pressed into a defensive posture facing widescale armed opposition from the Karen National Liberation Army near the border with Thailand. President Hlaing previously offered nationwide pardons and proposed a hundred – day negotiations framework to the rebel groups in order to cease the armed fighting. The move was perceived as a political maneuver to consolidate military and political power and was renounced by the larger armed groups.
Impact: Failing to draw the majority of rebel fighters under a unified military and political umbrella, the military junta under General Hlaing is likely to continue military operations in the country. The civil war in Myanmar is largely dictated by China which has vested interests in the country’s rare earth mineral sector and has made significant gas pipeline infrastructure investments in the past. China is likely to enforce and further support the junta in its endeavors since it has invested significant political capital in the junta’s leadership as demonstrated through the recent meeting between China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi and General Hlaing. Going forward, the junta, banking on continued support from China, is likely to politically pressure weakened rebel groups towards joining the ruling government further sowing discord among the decentralized EAO (Ethnic Armed Organizations) and the People’s Defense Forces, strengthening its grip on power.