Description: The Malian military after repositioning in the northeastern town of Menaka, clashed with fighters from the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) and managed to force the fighters to scatter and retreat in Mali’s inland and across the border with Niger. Mali’s military after the initial blitzkrieg from the FLA and JNIM, succeeded in establishing some sort of control over Mopti, Gao and Sevare, while Kidal still remains out of reach and under the complete control of the FLA – JNIM fighters. FLA’s spokesperson, Mahamed Elmaouloud Ramadane, while visiting Paris and meeting French defense and military officials, told the press that FLA and JNIM’s joint strategy is to establish control over the Timbuktu region, where FLA fighters supported by JNIM engaged Russian mercenaries and the Malian military. Clashes broke out in the Gourma Rharous where the FLA – JNIM fighters established temporary control, however, they face heavy resistance from Russian air support and the Malian military’s ground troops.
Impact: The FLA and JNIM are likely to position themselves to hold control over the occupied military bases in the immediate term, awaiting support from international backers such as France, who is and has been staunchly supporting the FLA in the past. FLA and JNIM are most likely also opting for consolidating and remobilizing in the northern parts of the country where large swathes of territory are either control by the FLA or JNIM currently. Armed confrontations would continue sporadically with the situation on the ground constantly fluctuating between the warring parties. The conflict is likely transpiring towards a proxy war over control and influence over Mali’s natural resources between France and Russia which is a war that France is likely to win in the long – term. Russia is constrained with resources, and foreign support is scarce due to its war in Ukraine while proxy wars and extending influence in Africa is most probably a sidelined geopolitical priority in Moscow for the time being.