Description: US president Donald Trump has rejected the latest proposal from Iran to end the war after claiming it was not enough to bring the US side back to the negotiating table. He also stated that Iran’s leadership structure was completely disoriented and internal divisions further compromised Iran’s position in the negotiations. Iran’s leadership is undoubtedly under tremendous pressure as recent public posturing through statements and withdrawals have demonstrated. The IRGC is largely believed to be the center of power which translates into the hardline position Iran is undertaking in the current constellation of relations and negotiations with the US. US intelligence agencies have reportedly investigated Iran’s response in case Trump’s suddenly decides to withdraw from the war without any conclusive agreement and the potential effects on the US president as well as the Republican party which are rapidly declining in the polls. Israel and Hezbollah continued their confrontation in Lebanon which severely endangers their formal ceasefire and the ceasefire between the US and Iran, as the cessation of the war in Lebanon was positioned as a precondition to negotiations.
Impact: The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is highly likely to continue in the foreseeable future as both countries seem to lack the political capital and will to reengage in negotiations. Current US military buildup in the region likely serves as a force multiplier and an operational alternative from the negotiating process. Iran’s position, considering the degraded leadership structure and political and ideological infighting is unlikely to change while the US is likely to be forced into making a final decision to resolve the largely unpopular war domestically in order to avoid continued scrutiny. Escalation of the war remains a possible option even though it becomes less likely as the standoff continues since the US has opted to pressure Iran economically towards concessions and diplomatic reengagement. Pakistan seems to have exploited the last resources of their diplomatic capital as no new efforts have been recently made for reconciliation between the warring parties.