Description: Romanian prime minister, Ilie Bolojan, faces a potential no confidence vote after the leftist Social Democrat party threatened to withdraw 6 ministers out of the ruling four party coalition. Bolojan faces increased scrutiny over the proposed austerity measures and tax increases aimed to decrease Romania’s surging budget deficit of 9%, one of the highest among European Union members. The far – right Alliance for Uniting Romanians, led by George Simion, who lost the presidential elections at the end of last year to Nicusor Dan, also threatened to file a no confidence motion against Bolojan’s government. Protracted political crisis could block Romania’s 11 billion euros in recovery funds from the EU and risk the country’s participation in EU’s SAFE rearmament program where Romania is set to sign defense contracts worth 16.6 billion euros. The Social Democrat party controls 28% of the seats in parliament, making it the most influential in undertaking next steps.
Impact: Romania’s retraction towards a potential political crisis is likely instigated by a power grab move launched on two separate fronts from the leftist Social Democrats and the far – right Alliance for Uniting Romanians. Political alignment between the two parties from diametrically opposing specters is unlikely which indicates that Bolojan is likely to engage in negotiations with the dissatisfied parties or appoint replacing ministers. The Romanian prime minister is considered as one of the most respected politicians in the country and has the support of the newly elected president which likely signals a joint front in tackling the risk of political crisis. Romania’s economic struggles primarily caused by years of political turmoil and global instability as well as domestic corruption are unlikely to be resolved expediently which keeps the risk of political crisis as a realistic prospect in the short to mid – term period.