Description: Nickolay Mladenov, the chairman of Trump’s Board of Peace, stated that diplomatic efforts continue as the board attempts to bring closer a comprehensive peace deal between Israel and Hamas. Mladenov also confirmed that Hamas’ disarmament and Israeli military pullout from the region remain the two largest sticking points in the negotiation. Since the announcement of the ceasefire, the Israeli military has killed over 750 Palestinians in Gaza as clashes between Hamas, regional militias in support of Israel and Israel’s military have been consistently present. Open-source data confirmed that the initial yellow line demarcation has been removed and Israel has been establishing military presence way beyond the previously agreed lines. Gaza’s reconstruction was recently estimated at $71 billion by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Impact: The war in Gaza is likely to continue due to the limited diplomatic capital invested by the international community due to the ongoing crisis in Iran. Sporadic violence and civilian death toll are expected to increase as Israeli – backed militias and Israel’s military continue to engage Hamas in armed confrontations. Trump’s Board of Peace has not gained any significant traction as many geopolitical heavyweights have rejected participation. Israel’s engagement in an all – out war in the region would likely marginalize the war with Hamas with Israel likely expanding military presence in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is unlikely to agree towards disarmament without previous guarantees which for the time being are severely limited, considering the fact that the US is prioritizing its war in Iran and international organizations such as the UN severely lack funding.