Description: After Israel ratified the agreement in its Security Cabinet, the internationally mediated ceasefire led by US President Donald Trump began on Friday. Hamas and Israel were expected to fully incorporate the provisions from the agreement with Israel withdrawing its military forces gradually while Hamas committing towards releasing all the remaining Israeli hostages, dead or alive. President Trump was expected to arrive on Monday in Israel to oversee the hostage release and score a diplomatic victory lap on the international stage for managing to stop the war. Hamas has immediately started to reassert itself as the dominating force in Gaza, as clashes with other militia clans, such as the Dughmush were reported in several neighborhoods in Gaza City. With the initial phase of the ceasefire completed, Hamas and Israel would continue negotiating crucial sticking points of the 20 – point ceasefire plan, which are expected to be focused on Hamas’s future role, the establishment of a Palestinian state and its government and the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.
Impact: The rapid incorporation and completion of the initial stages of the ceasefire represents a significant diplomatic achievement without practical enforcement guardrails which could potentially still endanger stability in Gaza and the wider Middle East. The upcoming period represents a crucial timeframe for establishing the basis for a lasting solution to a war which has spread for over 7 decades and tarnished stability in the region. Hamas’ actions in Gaza immediately after the withdrawal of Israeli troops indicate the terrorist organization would be difficult to persuade in releasing its grip on the enclave and abandon its armed resistance. Israel is currently in a favorable position to resolve longstanding adversarial relations with Arab countries and reinforce its position in the Middle East. Progress in the complete establishment of the peace platform in the upcoming period would be exclusively contingent on numerous factors such as consistent diplomatic pressure from the mediators and the US and committed political capital in resolving the Palestinian question.