Description: Iran conducted retaliatory strikes on the US military base Al – Udeid in Qatar as a response to the US operation Midnight Hammer, by firing 19 missiles which caused minimal infrastructural damage and no civilian casualties. Shortly after Iran’s strikes, US President Donald Trump announced on his social media platform Truth Social, that a unilateral ceasefire is to be imposed by the US after productive backchannel talks with both warring countries. Trump praised Qatar for their mediation attempts and effective backchannel of communications with the Iranians while announcing the ceasefire which was initially accepted by Israel and subsequently by Iran, calling for the conflict to be named the 12 – Day War. Iranian Foreign Minister was visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow before he stated that Iran was in favor of the ceasefire if Israel ceased its attacks. After announcing the ceasefire, Trump stated that Iran warned the US of the attack on Al – Udeid in order for any loss of human life to be avoided. The announcement extends the dimensions of the conflict outside of the conventional strategic purposes as many unanswered questions remain and a fragile word of mouth ceasefire looms over an expanded crisis in the Middle East.
Impact: Unsurprisingly the marginalized diplomatic efforts have delivered some sort of a temporary insubstantial solution which would contribute towards a fragile cessation of military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Both countries are still far away from approaching a serious peace resolution which could also expand towards resolving the war between Hamas and Israel in Gaza and the West Bank. The joint US – Israeli military action except for stirring the proverbial warfare pot in the Middle East, hasn’t delivered anything conclusive. Iran’s nuclear program and initial assessments of the damage caused by the attacks on the nuclear enrichment sites signal that most if not all of the fuel and enriched uranium was preemptively transferred to an undisclosed location, which may prompt the Islamic regime in Iran, under the current conditions, to pursue the alleged weaponization of their nuclear program even more intensely and far away from the watchful eyes of the international community. The speculated regime change scenario remains without any political or civil traction as the crippled IRGC, and clerical leadership of Iran still maintained a firm grip on power within the country. The current state of affairs positions the crisis in the Middle East on shaky ground somewhere between a fragile ceasefire, reconciliation of nuclear talks and continued warfare.