Description: After the lightning offensive launched by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) earlier this month, the security situation in Yemen has significantly deteriorated. The country is currently partitioned between the Houthis, who operate in the country’s west, the STC, which has claimed large territory in the country’s southern coastal cities including the strategic port of Aden and the internationally recognized government which was left with little territorial control in the northwestern parts of the country. The Houthis and Yemen’s government concluded a prisoner exchange agreement within a couple of days for more than 3 thousand prisoners on both sides. Saudi Arabia, which in large supports the National Shield Forces which are fighting the Houthis, called for deescalation and withdrawal of the STC from its recently captured cities. The STC is supported by the UAE which signaled larger divisions in forwarding foreign policy interests by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The STC captured the governorates of Hadramout and Mahra in their recent offensive and expelled the internationally recognized Yemeni government to the northwest.
Impact: Yemen’s territorial and power dynamics landscape is looking down at another partition as militant fractions and foreign sponsored rebel groups fight for control. The STC’s recent offensive represents a clear claim for political legitimacy and campaign for seceding the larger parts of the country into an independent nation that predates the unification of Yemen in 1990. Saudi Arabia strenuously opposes the destabilization and the abandonment of the current stalemate which puts the UAE and Saudi Arabia on a regional confrontational course regarding Yemen’s future. The Houthis, which are backed by Iran, would look to exploit the chaos and bolster their control of territory in the western parts of the country without any ambitions for a serious offensive since they have proven to be a competent proxy force but not a backstop for a larger offensive by another military force in the country such as the STC. The country is on the verge of serious instability reminiscent of the civil war, which could lead towards wider regional repercussions considering all the invested stakeholders from abroad.