Description: Venezuela’s President, Nicolas Maduro, addressed the nation stating that a false flag attack on the US embassy in Caracas has been averted. He claimed that Venezuelan security forces were preemptively warned by a domestic and international sources about the attack and security forces were immediately deployed to the deserted embassy to reinforce security. The attack was allegedly plotted by a terrorist organization and aimed to further inflate the already escalated tensions between the two countries by portraying Venezuela as the perpetrator of the attack. US President Donald Trump previously instructed the US Special envoy for the country, Richard Grenell, to cease all communications with his Venezuelan counterparts. Previously, Trump issued a memo labeling the US to be engaged in a non – international armed conflict with drug cartels, further enhancing the scope of the inquiry of US military and security assets off the Venezuelan coast, deployed earlier this year. Last week US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, stated a fourth attack by US armed forces has been completed onto another boat reportedly involved in illegal drug trafficking which was carrying members of the Tren de Aragua cartel.
Impact: The alleged false flag attack represents the most severe escalation of the current state of US – Venezuela relations which have been rapidly deteriorating in recent months accompanied by substantial military buildup and aggressively offensive public narrative on both sides. So far, the US has constrained its operations towards targeting boats transiting in international waters, operations which have been considerably disputed on the legal front, however, the recent escalation coupled with the abandonment of diplomatic communication by the US indicates that some sort of covert or kinetic operations might take place in the near future. The posturing from both US and Venezuela currently transforms into an aggressive confrontational narrative which could be easily inflated towards confliction. The US currently exerts maximum pressure on Maduro’s government with the consistent naval and military operations coupling them with aggressive measures and enhanced confrontational narrative. The possibility for a direct confrontation remains low, however, considering the high level of bilateral tensions and escalatory narrative, some forms of confrontation, such as covert and influence operations, remain a possibility.