Description: The Venezuelan parliament passed a bill, criminalizing individuals and institutions as well as private organizations which are involved in the illegal seizure of the tankers carrying crude oil in and out of Venezuela. The bill arrives after almost four months of sustained US military and political pressure for President Nicolas Maduro to step down. The US Coast Guard with the assistance of the US Navy has so far seized two tankers in the last couple of weeks and is currently in an active pursuit after the third tanker called Bella 1. US President Donald Trump in a rare direct statement claimed that Maduro shouldn’t remain in power while US Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem, complemented Trump’s statements by claiming that Maduro’s ouster was extremely favorable for the US and the Venezuelan President has overextended its political mandate. In the interim, the US has reportedly concluded security and defense contracts with several countries in South America, such as Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Ecuador, Panama and Paraguay. The agreements allegedly allowed US military and naval assets to be stationed in the military bases in the various countries, which was also reported as part of the longitudinal US foreign strategy in regard to Venezuela.
Impact: The Venezuelan crisis starts to transpire towards a regional security problem since the US has reportedly started working on surrounding the country which would allow the US favorable conditions for ground operations and strategic depthness in case of a potential invasion. The narrative on both sides continues to be extremely hostile, which signals that backchannel negotiations are not resulting in any concrete resolutions. The criminalization bill passed by the Venezuelan parliament has little to no effect in practice since Venezuela lacks the instruments to enforce such bill into law and prosecute those responsible for the economic blockade of the country. The bill is also a political reactionary move by Maduro’s administration to demonstrate the government’s preparedness to resist attempts by the US to stage a coup in the country and seize its resources. Ground invasion remains out of the US playbook currently, while the pressure strategy is expected to continue, turning the standoff into a game of resistance where the US would continue to suffocate Venezuela’s economy while Maduro would try to wait out the storm, hoping to preserve his presidency, a prospect which the US would continuously aim to discredit.