Description: US President Donald Trump has indicated that the US naval and military forces dispatched in the Caribbean could resort towards operations that include ground interventions in Venezuela and designated the so – called Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns) a foreign terrorist organization. The FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) also announced that the Venezuelan airspace would be closed off for international aviation companies due to security risks stemming from the active and fragile situation in the country. Venezuela’s President, Nicolas Maduro, strongly condemned the announcements stating that they bordered neocolonialistic tendencies and military interventionism. Tensions between the countries started rising in Sep, when the US military commenced drone strikes on alleged illegal drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean, killing more than 80 people in 21 strikes. Trump also briefly confirmed that he talked directly with Maduro over the phone without specifying the details of the conversation.
Impact: The gradual escalation of tensions continue to fall under the purview of direct diplomatic and military pressure on Venezuela’s President, Nicolas Maduro, to abandon the country’s strategic allegiances with China and Russia and align with the US regional and global charter of foreign policy agendas. Direct military intervention still remains an unlikely possibility since the risks heavily outweigh the potential rewards, however, targeted airstrikes or special covert operations remain possible. Outside of toppling the leftist government in Venezuela and distancing the country from its partners which are adversarial to the US, the final goal of the military buildup coupled with the political and diplomatic pressure from the US remains unclear. The situation maintains to be fluent and constantly fluctuating with the US continuing to ratchet the pressure up on Maduro to step down. The Venezuelan President could resist the pressure in the short to mid – term and position his administration to offer considerable concessions to the US in order to avoid violent overthrow of the government which would transpire towards public unrest and a period of indefinite political crisis.