Description: Ukrainian President, Volodymir Zelenskyy, arrived in Paris where he met French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the latest diplomatic developments regarding the 28 – point peace plan proposed by the US for ending the war in Ukraine. Previously, the newly appointed lead negotiator for Ukraine, Rustem Umerov, who is also the Secretary of Ukraine’s Security Council, reported that talks with US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio in Florida went extremely productive and substantial progress has been made over the weekend. Ukraine and Russia exchanged attacks over the weekend and on Monday, where Russian drones attacked the city of Dnipro, while Ukrainian underwater drones targeted the Caspian pipeline which is internationally managed by companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil. Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has reiterated the statements of Russian President Vladimir Putin and claimed that the 28 – point peace plan was a solid basis for further negotiations, but the situation was still far away from a comprehensive peace plan The main obstacles which are expected to be discussed between Zelenskyy and Macron as well as throughout other diplomatic efforts this week are the ceding of territory and the security guarantees. Currently, Ukraine rejects any territorial concessions and demands NATO membership as the most cost-effective way of ensuring the country’s security. Russia rejects Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership and considers the territorial concessions one of its red lines within the framework of the negotiations. US special envoy Steven Witkoff is expected to meet with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, where he would also outline the current state of affairs regarding the renewed peace initiative on behalf of the US.
Impact: Under the current constellation of power dynamics in the trilateral negotiations, Russia holds the upper hand while Ukraine is faced with impossible choices on both the international and domestic front. Yermak’s resignation and the energy corruption scandal have damaged Zelenskyy’s presidency and compromised his standing domestically, while international support is divided between Europe’s push to use the frozen Russian assets, impose more sanctions and further isolate Russia and the US initiative to appease Russia in terms of reintroduction on the international stage through economic reintegration and amnesty for instigating the war in the first place. This week’s diplomatic overtures are highly unlikely to deliver any considerable progress since both Ukraine and Russia are still reluctant to discuss heavy compromises and commit serious political and diplomatic capital behind the US plan to end the war. The negotiations could deliver some sort of a mild diplomatic convergence between both countries, however, faultlines still run deep, and a comprehensive peace framework is still a distant prospect. Russia would exploit the US in terms of their willingness to discuss solutions on an even keel, despite the criticism and disapproval from Ukraine and Europe. Ukraine’s precarious position both militarily and diplomatically could prompt Zelenskyy’s administration to seriously consider offering substantial concessions in return for serious consideration of the latest US proposal from the Russian side.