Description: Attending the NATO Summit in the Hague, US President Donald Trump reiterated the inaccurate and preliminary intelligence assessment leaked by the DIA, regarding the mission Midnight Hammer, repeating that the report has been released in public to undermine the military operation and discredit the administration politically. CIA Director John Ratcliffe and the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabard, shifted the public optics of the assessment, claiming now, that new intelligence from a historically reliable source has emerged that confirmed the Iranian nuclear enrichment sites in Fordow, Esfahan and Natanz were destroyed, and that if the Iranians would need years if they were to reinstitute their nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, publicly stated that all three sites were seriously damaged without commenting further on the extent or the severity of the damage caused by the US aerial attacks. Baghaei also announced that the Iranian Parliament voted to cease cooperation with the IAEA and confirmed Iran’s decision, citing concerns over the organization’s objectivity and real purpose, taking into consideration recent acttivities by the IAEA and the fact that Iran is a signatory of the non – proliferation treaty. The scheduled US intelligence brief delivered to Congress every Tuesday was indefinitely postponed, following the Pentagon’s investigation into the leak of the initial intelligence assessment from the DIA. Following the ceasefire, Iran has intensified domestic counterintelligence activities, arresting more than 26 people from its military branches and the IRGC. The US President talking to the press during his visit in the Hague stated that US – Iran nuclear talks were scheduled for next week without mentioning specifics, while the Iranians stated they have not received any information regarding the reinstatement of the negotiations neither from the US nor through intermediaries.
Impact: Controversies surrounding the initial assessment regarding the US attacks on Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites have converged the US intelligence community towards supporting the statements from their President. The Republican party has a blanket of political clout over the US, which raises questions over the objectivity of the communicated information in the media, following constant shifts in narrative and defusing disagreements through plainly agreeing with what the US President states. The response from the Iranian side is also unequivocal, since all the officials that have so far talked about the nuclear program refrained themselves from conclusively bringing about a final position on the state of the nuclear enrichment sites, following the US attacks. Iran’s cessation of cooperating with the IAEA would most probably make further assessing the damage almost impossible since detailed geological research and in – depth seismic investigations would have to be conducted on site. Iran’s domestic counterintelligence crackdown comes as a response to the highly sophisticated Israeli covert intelligence penetration, where the Mossad managed to locate and eliminate most of the individuals working on Iran’s disputed program. The persecution would likely result in public executions which could further destabilize the country politically, following the 12 – day war with Israel. Reinstated negotiations this early in the porous ceasefire wouldn’t result in anything conclusive since the Iranians have no incentive to address the key obstacles the US would most probably present. The friction between the ceasefire, the state of Iran’s nuclear program and the upcoming diplomatic efforts, put the war in a stagnant state of affairs, with many unresolved and unknown outcomes.