Description: South Korean national intelligence service (NIS) stated that latest assessments on North Korea’s mobilization rates indicated the country planned on sending more troops in support of Russia’s summer offensive on Ukraine. NIS further stated that previous close cooperation between North Korea and Russia continued with a rapid pace, with Russia increasing North Korea’s access to its highly developed military technology departments. According to the assessment issued by NIS, North Korean troops were expected in Russia as early as Jul or Aug. The announcement arrives after Ukrainian Army General, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Ukrainian forces managed to prevent recent Russian offensives on the northeastern city of Sumy. The city has been pummeled by Russian missiles and drone attacks while the battlefront has been largely criticized of being weakly fortified which allowed the Russian military easier ground access to crucial tactical points. Syrskyi further stated that the fragile points of entrenchment were already being fortified as Ukraine expected an enlarged military campaign in the summer period.
Impact: Ukraine was once again positioned on the margins of the global chessboard on the recently concluded NATO Summit, with EU and Canada managing to mull $35 billion in support. The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy expectedly signaled the continued calculative and indecisive approach from the US towards the war in Ukraine. President Zelenskyy, months before Russian attacks on Sumy, warned of a potential Russian expansion in the region where Russia had amassed around 50 thousand troops. Intelligence reports from South Korea supported signals that Russia was preparing a summer offensive, which was additionally confirmed when the Russian Secretary of the Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, visited Kim Jong Un with the officials announcing enhanced strategic cooperation in the future without specifying details. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with Russia fully exploiting its advantageous position on the battlefronts while Ukraine remains in a precarious position between conditioned and calculative US support relying on the financial backing of the EU and its allies.