Description: Turkey’s energy Minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, has stated that Turkey would demand from Iraq renewed assurance of consistent oil supply in the new negotiations regarding the Kirkuk – Ceyhan oil pipeline agreement. The agreement which expires in Jul 2026, has come under scrutiny recently, mostly over Iraq’s negligence to provide and invest in the necessary infrastructure which would ensure consistent supply of oil as part of the agreement which was initially concluded in 2024. Bayraktar also expressed Turkey’s preparedness to support Iraq in developing the infrastructure and potentially connecting the pipeline with basins from the southern parts of the country. The pipeline has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day and has been offline since 2023, when a certain arbitration court ruled that Turkey owed Iraq $1.5 billion in damages for unauthorized oil exports between 2014 and 2018.
Impact: Turkey’s geopolitical activities in the Middle East continue to increase through devising economic partnerships and projects ensuring the consistency of Turkish influence in other countries. The Kirkuk – Ceyhan oil pipeline is one of the most crucially concluded projects between Iraq and Turkey in recent years which could mutually benefit both countries, as Iraq aims at resuscitating its oil – based economy, while Turkey is interested in expanding its energy capacities and becoming a major hub for transfer of crude oil and gas towards Europe. The deal, however, has been reportedly abused from the Turkish side, which is accused of illegally exporting vast amounts of oil exports over four years, which potentially endangers future negotiations in restarting the energy partnership. Iraqi’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Al – Sudani, recently demonstrated interest in reengaging with Iraq’s western partners which are expected to contribute towards the country’s stabilization, mostly countering terrorist groups such as the Islamic State. Depending on the outcome of the bilateral legal dispute, Turkey and Iraq, if able to surpass differences, could instigate an important partnership which would be highly favorable and beneficial for both countries as they would construct a major energy infrastructure impacting supply to Europe and beyond.