Description: After a weekend of intense armed fighting, Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to converge towards a peaceful resolution to the four – day conflict that caused the internal displacement of more than 150 thousand people on both sides with the death toll reaching 33 people. US President Donald Trump has personally intervened in the de-escalation, threatening both Thailand and Cambodia with strict bilateral trade measures. Malaysia, as the acting President country of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) encroached the peace initiative and offered to mediate ceasefire and peace negotiations between the warring parties. China has also strongly condemned the four-day fighting, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi also calling for immediate cessation of hostilities and diplomatic rapprochement. Officials from both countries are expected to meet in Malaysia on 28 Jul, where a delegation of Malaysian and US foreign officials would facilitate peace talks between the two countries.
Impact: The Thailand – Cambodia conflict reflects the broadening geopolitical rivalry between the US and China and the revolving relevance of the southeast Asian geopolitical theater. Despite previous rejection, Thailand has approached a mediated solution under US pressure, while Cambodia’s position remained unchanged as the country called for direct talks after the second day of confliction. Malaysia has emerged as the most neutral country with enough political clout and diplomatic capabilities to bring the warring countries towards the negotiation table. Evident diplomatic pressure from the US and China has additionally contributed to the de-escalation as both US and China would favor forwarding economic interests in southeast Asia, rather than resolving decades – long regional war disputes. Malaysia’s mediation might bring forward a potential ceasefire agreement, however, the broader dimensions and scales of the conflict are yet to be addressed in what’s edging to become a protracted diplomatic engagement between Thailand and Cambodia.