Description: Thailand and Cambodia’s militaries have remained relatively disciplined in the fragile US – brokered ceasefire, however, both establishments have intensified their wartime narrative raising concerns over renewing the conflict. Thailand and Cambodia have recently exchanged accusations over ceasefire violations, with Thailand using public media channels to show that Cambodia has violated the Ottawa mine treaty through positioning land mines in the disputed border regions. On the Cambodian side, the influential Hun Sen and Hun Manet have managed to strengthen their ruling position riding on a nationalist sentiment of defense while also intensifying accusations on Thailand’s violations of the existing ceasefire through media campaigns aimed at discrediting Thailand’s claims to the disputed border regions.
Impact: Recent developments in the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia have demonstrated that both countries lack political will and diplomatic prowess to reach a final resolution to their border dispute. Thailand’s political crisis further exacerbates the situation with early elections emerging as a potential solution to the crisis, which compromises the country’s internal stability and government capacities to tackle the bilateral dispute. Cambodia is currently in a more advantageous position, exploiting the foreign crisis by enforcing their proposition for the dispute to be resolved through the ICJ. Bilateral mediated negotiations through Malaysia have stalled over the past three weeks which fuels uncertainty over the fragile ceasefire. Currently there are no hard indications that Thailand and Cambodia would militarily reengage, however, judging by the nature of rapid escalation and high bilateral tensions the option of resorting towards renewed armed confrontations remains open on both sides.