Description: Cambodia’s Prime Minister, Hun Manet, has accused Thailand of severe violation of the ceasefire as the Thai military reportedly opened fire on civilians and Cambodian border patrol servicemen near the area of Prey Chan in Cambodia’s Bonteay Meanchey province and the Sa Kaeo province on the Thai side of the border. One civilian was reported to have been killed while three others were seriously injured as Thai troops reportedly opened fire without being provoked in any way. Thailand’s defense ministry reported that Cambodia’s border soldiers were the first ones to have opened fire after which Thai’s military forces were forced to respond. The confrontation comes only a day after Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said that Thailand was suspending the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and deployed tanks in several border regions. The escalation began a couple of days prior, when Thai border soldiers suffered critical injuries from a land mine detonation suspected of being planted by Cambodia’s border patrols.
Impact: The immediate escalation through public rhetoric and armed confrontations indicate that Thailand and Cambodia might renew their open armed confrontation, reminiscent of the five – day war in Jul this year, without foreign mediating intervention from the ceasefire guarantors, Malaysia or the US. The armed confrontation erupted only a day after Thailand resorted towards suspending the ceasefire and commenced with a renewed military buildup across the disputed border regions. The bilateral animosities have been extending for almost a century and the ceasefire agreement failed to address the disputed issues regarding territory. Following the most recent dynamics in escalation from their armed confrontation in Jul, Thailand and Cambodia would most probably continue to escalate the tensions with additional military buildup across the disputed border regions which could transpire towards an all – out military confrontation in the short – term period.