Description: Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia continued to surge as a leaked phone call between Thailand’s Premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian Premier Hun Sen caused public backlash. The phone call later verified by public media sources recorded Shinawatra telling Hun Sen that she is under insurmountable political pressure from the military and that Cambodia should not react to further border threats from a certain prominent Thailand border commander. The information caused for public outcries calling for Shinawatra’s resignation as large protest amassed in Cambodia supporting their government efforts. The dispute originated from an abrupt border confrontation that left one Cambodian soldier dead and aggravated bilateral ties between the two countries. Cambodia is pressing the International Court of Justice to restate a ruling from 1962 granting the country the disputed territory. Thailand has contested ICJ’s ruling on several occasions, not recognizing the Court’s jurisdiction and enforcing the dispute to be resolved through a preestablished bilateral mechanism. The latest developments were also followed by enlargement of the number of troops across the border which was reportedly instigated by Thailand’s military.
Impact: The latest developments severely impact the gravity of the situation on the ground which is more likely leading towards an armed confrontation instead of a dispute resolution. The leaked phone call significantly exacerbated the situation and imploded political divisions within Thailand’s government, which historically has problems with its military forces which have toppled Thailand’s presidents on two occasions so far, in 2006 and 2014. The bilateral communication mechanism is evidently failing to deliver concrete proposals for de-escalation as the additional troop deployment positions both countries on a collision course. If negotiations between the military leadership does not gain traction and deliver potential solutions regarding the border dispute, the confrontational stance from both countries would prevail causing a regional military crisis.