Description: The border crisis between Cambodia and Thailand expands towards direct trade confrontation and sparks a political crisis in Thailand. Cambodian State Senate President, Hun Sen, last week, leaked a phone call with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, where she labels one of Thailand’s border commanders as one of the main obstacles towards de-escalation. Prime Minister Hun Manet also announced the ban of oil and gas imports as a measure of renouncing Thailand’s methods to negotiate the border dispute which was reignited recently. Shinawatra was called by the opposition party in Thailand to resign from the Prime Minister position following her statements regarding the border commander. She denounced any possibility of her resignation, as she stated that coalition support has been unified, despite the exit of the Bhumjaithai Party from the ruling government.
Impact: Thailand and Cambodia’s bilateral mechanism of communication has proven to be counterproductive as both countries slowly distanced themselves from a diplomatic solution to the border dispute. Thailand’s Prime Minister Shinawatra faces considerable domestic backlash with demonstrations set to take place on 28 Jun, causing further political deterioration in the country. No significant outliers were noted between Shinawatra and the Thai military, signaling a potential reconciliation and consolidation of power. Cambodia’s move should be considered as escalatory, causing further bilateral tensions and directly inciting a political crisis in Thailand, through the leaking of the phone call between Shinawatra and Hun Sen. Bilateral tensions in the short to mid – term are expected to gradually escalate depending on the political crisis unraveling in Thailand and the bilateral diplomatic rapprochement.