Description: Sudan’s RSF has launched a renewed offensive to retake the critical strategic hub from Sudan’s armed forces in the city of El – Obeid. RSF attacked the village of Kazkeel and brought the fighting close to North Kordofan’s capital with predictions that they would soon be able to overwhelm the regional military forces. Sudan’s weather season would significantly impact future RSF advances as the group would aim at neutralizing Sudan’s army aerial superiority. El – Obeid is reportedly a critical logistical and operations hub for Sudan’s army which is attempting to launch an offensive towards El – Fasher, located in the Darfur region in the west, where many civilians and armed forces are occupied by the RSF.
Impact: Last week’s confrontations between Sudan’s army and the RSF in the Kordofan region have reportedly forced the army to reduce operational capabilities in the North Kordofan region, while the RSF continues to push their attacks further towards El – Obeid. The critical significance of the city stipulates that if the army lost control over the city, the RSF would have a clear path towards reoccupying Khartoum and marking significant ground offensive gains in the two – year war. The lack of military capacity on both sides to prevail in the conflict only aggravates the devastating humanitarian crisis and prolongs the war. Foreign influence in the form of funding, logistical support and intelligence still predominates international peace initiatives which indicates that Sudan, alike the civil war which resulted in the creation of South Sudan in 2011, is facing another territorial division, unless a certain political consensus between the warring parties is reached in the near future, based on a ceasefire and an eventual peace agreement.