Description: The civil war in Sudan has experienced the most significant upsurge in violence ever since the fall of the city of El Fasher, when the RSF committed unseen atrocities such as mass murder and sexual violence in the most brutal manner ever reported in the war so far. The paramilitary group almost immediately started expanding their offensive towards the east, attacking an airport and a dam in the city of Marowe with drones. The RSF also expanded ground offensives in the central and northern parts of the Kordofan province encircling the Sudanese Armed Forces in several cities. The latest reports indicated that RSF seized the town of Bara in the North Kordofan state while the city of Babanusa in the West Kordofan state has been also recently encircled by RSF fighters. In the South Kordofan state the cities of Kadugli and Al – Dalanj were the next likeliest flashpoints of immense armed confrontation as a group called SPLM – N, aligned with the RSF, has surrounded the military troops deployed in those cities. The most significant escalation is expected in the city of El – Obeid where substantial military buildup has been reported on both sides. Refugees have overwhelmed the capacities in the neighboring Chad, where an approximate number of 1 million people have fled since the beginning of the war. US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio stated that the US along with other partners from the Quad has been continuously working towards pressuring both the RSF and the SAF towards resolving the war.
Impact: RSF have expectedly widened their offensive efforts towards the Kordofan province encircling key cities where the SAF is still holding control. The paramilitary group has leveraged extensive support from its foreign partners such as sophisticated drones to outmaneuver the SAF and force them into withdrawal. The most recent reports signaled that Kordofan, which has served as a buffer zone between SAF and RSF controlled territories, would become the next battlefront as the war enters its third year. Kordofan is located in the central part of Sudan and extends into three separate states which represent the largest swathe of territory in the country and a key territorial strategic asset that would significantly impact the outcome of the war or the positional predetermination on both sides in case the warring parties engage in ceasefire or peace negotiations. The RSF currently hold the advantage in the air and on the ground as the SAF have been focusing on preventing the fall of El Fasher and defending against the intense aerial campaign launched by the RSF on the capital Khartoum and other cities of strategic significance. The multi – layered foreign influence through weapons proliferation, financial, logistical and political support severely endangers the civilian population by intensifying the humanitarian and refugee crisis and adds towards the uncertainty of the outcome of the war. Peace efforts seem like a distant prospect at this point in time which indicates that additional scenes alike the ones in El Fasher are to be expected in the near future.