Description: The Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission or RJMEC, the official ceasefire monitoring organization in South Sudan has reported that all parties including the government of South Sudan have substantially rearmed and launched mobilization and training programs across the country. RJMEC is overseen by the regional bloc of African countries IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) and is responsible for monitoring the implementation of the 2018 ceasefire agreement. The body held an official meeting with representatives from the South Sudanese government and other relevant stakeholders from local militias, such as the political wing of the oppositional White Army militia. Concerns over renewed civil war have been persistent along the last couple of months, especially escalating with the imprisonment and ongoing trial of the country’s First Vice – President Riek Machar, who has been accused of terrorism and crimes against humanity. The organization estimated that approximately 320 thousand people have fled the country since the reignition of armed hostilities between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice – President Riek Machar.
Impact: The report by the RJMEC outlined important risk factors that are prevalent over diplomatic resolution of the security and political crisis in South Sudan. President Salva Kiir has repeatedly denounced attempts for political cohabitation with his rivals in the country and launched persecutive campaign of stifling dissent which raised serious concerns over nationwide violence and the reignition of the civil war in the country. With the ongoing trial of his political opponent, the mobilization of numerous armed militias across the country and the constant low – scale armed clashes, the situation remains volatile and diplomatic resolution seems like a far-fetched prospect for the time being. Severe escalation of the armed confrontation is currently highly probable with Machar continuously calling for foreign legal supervision of his trial which he labeled as political farse, continuing to stoke tensions with Kiir’s government.