Description: Clashes between the administrations of the five semi – autonomous regions in Somalia have provided the terrorist group Al Shabab with an opening for land grabs and extension of territorial control. Following years of war, Somalia is presently divided between five semi – autonomous regions or member states such as Puntland, Jubaland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and South West, which are engaged in a constant power struggle with the centralized government in the country’s capital, Mogadishu. In recent weeks, Al Qaeda affiliate, Al Shabab, has intensified attacks within several member states focusing on Jubaland, where the current administration is engaged in an intense power struggle with the centralized government over the region called Gedo. Mogadishu aims to annex the region before the expected elections in the first half of 2026, ensuring expansion of territorial control and legitimizing itself as the ruling government. Jubaland loyalist forces have consistently clashed with Mogadishu’s military, aiming to prevent Gedo’s annexation which has been heavily exploited by Al Shabab to reassert itself as a dominant player within the country.
Impact: Somalia’s elections in 2026 would further fuel internal instability and escalate confliction between the administrations of the five semi – autonomous regions. Chances for potential governmental cohesion and forming a larger coalition of forces are low which signals that terrorist organizations such as Al Shabab would considerably exploit the power rift to gain access to crucial strategic regions and exert influence. Recent reports and assessments also indicated that the Islamic State is also intensifying and sophisticating its operations in Somalia which adds to the country’s considerably downgraded internal situation. Clashes between militants pertaining to the semi – autonomous regions and government forces in Mogadishu would surge significantly which would be followed by intensification of activities and operations of terrorist groups further destabilizing the country.