Description: Bilateral tensions between the two neighbors abruptly surged, when Russian law enforcement agents killed two Azerbaijani citizens in a raid in the city of Yekaterinburg. Azerbaijan’s law enforcement services conducted a raid on the Russian state – sponsored Sputnik TV, where several individuals residing illegally in the country were arrested. Azerbaijan has also cancelled all Russian entertainment venues while the Russian Foreign Ministry has called the Azerbaijani ambassador to explain the detention of the crew working in the TV station. Ties between Azerbaijan and Russa have been strained since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when a plane was accidentally shot by a Russian missile over the city of Grozny and crashed In Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 passengers on board. Azerbaijan was reported to have been developing closer ties with Ukraine recently, marking a significant shift in strategic positioning. Azerbaijani TV stations started to largely report unpublished video footage of recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities which were targeted by drones and missiles in recent weeks.
Impact: The spike in tensions could cause Azerbaijan to reconsider its strategic posturing and start aiding Ukraine in their defenses against Russia, establishing itself as a firm base of operations for the Ukrainian army and air assets. Azerbaijan’s still far away from inserting itself in the war and would be looking to remain unpersuaded in upholding a fixed strategic positioning remaining ambiguous in its choices. The country is also facing recent upsurge in tensions with Armenia, where ceasefire violations have been reported and several religious clerics in the country were arrested over suspicions of planning a coup. Russia would aim at defusing the tensions considering the Caspian state as a key gas and oil supply line while declining Azerbaijan’s regional ambitions to strategically court Ukraine and Turkey into developing closer ties.