Description: Suicide bomber driving a car packed full of explosives killed 13 soldiers at a military outpost in North Waziristan. Pakistan quickly pinned the attack to have been sponsored by India, while India categorically denied the accusations, calling Pakistan to provide evidence of its claims. Responsibility for the attack was later claimed by a group called Hafiz Gul Bahadur, which is an armed fraction of the Pakistani Taliban. Relations between Pakistan and India have been severely damaged since the Apr 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack, when affiliates of the Pakistani Lashkar e Taiba claimed responsibility putting India and Pakistan on a nuclear confrontation. Pakistan has been significantly destabilized by terrorist and various militant groups active across several security hotbeds in the country such as Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region, Waziristan and the Kashmir province.
Impact: Terrorist groups continue to catalyze India and Pakistan towards confrontation as most of them are either directly or indirectly state sponsored and used to incite confliction in areas of active insurgencies. The fragile ceasefire between the two nuclear powers imposed on 10 May and announced by US President Trump was expected to deliver direct diplomatic engagement which would spread towards developing a peace framework, however, efforts have significantly stalled with both countries barely repairing the damaged relations during the armed confrontations over Pahalgam. Pakistan’s strained security capacities coupled with several insurgency active flashpoints could be exploited by regional actors to inflame tensions and pressure both India and Pakistan towards renewed hostilities.