Description: Nigeria has been plagued by mass kidnappings, clashes between rival terrorist splinter organizations and armed fighting between herders and farmers. The security situation has been substantially degraded in the past couple of months with armed confrontations and mass abductions surging in several parts of the country. Criminal gangs or bandits have been running rampant in the northwest parts of the country, Islamist insurgency has remained active in the northeast, clashes between the herders and the farmers were reported in the central parts of the country while a separatist insurgency is active in the southeast parts of the country. These flashpoints have overwhelmed the security apparatus of the country which is comprised of 400 thousand members of the military and around 370 thousand police officers. Terrorist organizations such as Boko Haram and its splinter factions such as ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) as well as JNIM and other newer organizations such as Lakurawa and Mahmuda have suffocated Nigeria’s security forces. Bandits were proclaimed to have been responsible for the latest wave of mass abductions which are organizations that are harder to track due to their decentralized and leaderless organizational structure. Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu, declared a state of emergency last week due to the constantly deteriorating security situation in the country. US President Trump threatened military action earlier last month, if Nigeria didn’t properly address the violence against Christians perpetrated in the country.
Impact: Nigeria is facing a multi – layered and complex security threats which combined with the limited capacities and capabilities of the country’s military and security systems, could destabilize and decentralize one of the largest and most populated countries in Africa. The Nigerian government should be expected to request support in the forms of resources, expertise and even military or police support from its regional and international allies. The country is also expected to increase the security and military capacities, strengthen border control which would decrease illegal arms proliferation. Terrorist groups, bandits, separatist movements and even herders and farmers are engaged in a constant power struggle which overwhelms the country’s capacity to tackle the various security threats. The security state in the short to midterm is expected to further deteriorate if a comprehensive plan of action isn’t immediately incorporated.