Description: The Mozambiquan branch of ISIS, Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) has increased attacks on civilians and military targets by almost 56% compared to last year’s data. The insurgency in the country has been active since 2017 while the Mozambiquan government has failed to subvert the security threat even with the assistance of almost 5 thousand troops from Rwanda. Local reports signaled that Rwanda has decreased its operational capabilities in Mozambique and started to withdraw its personnel from the country. The increased level of ISM attacks has displaced more than 300 thousand people since July this year and more than a million over the course of the active insurgency. Crucial investment projects such as the controversial TotalEnergies LNG offshore project have been halted due to the increased level of security threats. President Daniel Chapo, who was controversially elected at the beginning of this year, stated that the government wanted to establish a dialogue with the insurgents.
Impact: ISIS is ramping up the global level of operations, exploiting security vacuums in countries that lack capabilities and capacities to counteract widespread insurgencies due to the general state of disorder and instability in countries such as Mozambique. ISM’s operations in Mozambique generally target the civilian population and continue to dissuade foreign investors which significantly impacts the national economy and the country’s deteriorated security landscape. High levels of corruption and the absence of socio – economic mechanisms in the country further aggravate the situation where even with foreign assistance from Rwanda, Mozambique’s security forces are unable to neutralize national security threats such as ISM. Chapo’s statements reflect the systemic decadence in the country where the general state of disorder and instability prevails, and institutions are not able to control or oppose sophisticated terrorist organizations such as ISIS. The crisis would continue to deteriorate in the foreseeable future with ISM expanding its territorial control and persecution of civilians.