Description: The military – led government in Mali is facing difficult odds against the Al Qaeda affiliated Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM). The Russian contractors pertaining to the Africa Corps (Wagner’s substitute organization in the Sahel) are continuously losing grounds to the well – coordinated and surprise attacks which are increasing in numbers and in locations. JNIM imposed a fuel blockade on Mali’s capital, Bamako, in Sep, and has ever since significantly expanded its influence, leveraging its appeal to other ethnic majorities in Mali, such as the Bambara ethnic group, with previously having to rely on the Fulani and the Tuareg minorities in the country. Since the beginning of the fuel blockade, JNIM has conducted more than 200 attacks on military troops, increased the number of kidnappings and managed to expand its financing network. The group is also increasing social media activities, propaganda and disinformation efforts to neutralize regional rivals such as the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) which are proving to be more of a challenge than the military or the Kremlin’s contractors. The ultimate goal according to present constellation of factors is to primarily destabilize the military – led governments in Mali and Burkina Faso and position an Islamist – favorable government as their successors.
Impact: JNIM’s rapid territorial expansion demonstrates the group’s capabilities as an asymmetric militant force that if mobilized and coordinated properly, could potentially topple the junta – led government in Mali and pose a significant challenge to the governments in Niger and Burkina Faso. Russia’s strategic overextension in the Sahel is manifested through the unsuccessful campaigns in Mali to support the military against JNIM and other terrorist or militant groups, which indicates that those groups, if left unopposed, could potentially grab more territory, control larger streamlines for financial efforts and mobilize enough fighters to challenge the military. JNIM’s sophistication in battling other terrorist groups such as ISSP or Malis’s military comes from Al Qaeda’s experience in challenging forces with a much larger portfolio of resources, equipment in personnel. Western countries, such as the expelled France, the US and other non – Russia aligned nations could facilitate these groups to pressure the Kremlin’s troops in the region and potentially bring about aggressive overthrow of the military – led governments, crippling Russia’s access to resource – critical regions in Africa. Violence would only escalate, with JNIM intensifying its efforts on all fronts and further expanding their operational outreach, potentially leveraging its militant efforts and economic warfare to capture the capital in the next 6 months to a year.
