Description: Mali’s government continues to struggle with the imposed blockade of fuel supply to the country’s capital, Bamako and other larger cities, by the Al Qaeda affiliated terrorist group, Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM). The group has encircled the major transporting and import routes to the country which are mostly coming from Senegal or the Ivory Coast, further delegitimizing the military junta government and suffocating the country’s already ailing economy. Large parts of territory in the country’s north and east remain under the control of JNIM and other smaller terrorist and insurgent groups which have managed to completely cut of the fuel supply and forced the government to close the schools and other state administration public services. The country suffers from a widespread energy crisis and power outages as the energy sector has been highly dependent on fossil fuels while the development of sustainable sources of energy has been consistently stalled. The blockade has substantially increased commodity prices further impoverishing the economically struggling population. Russia reiterated its support, pledging to deliver petroleum and gas to the country and resuscitate the development projects on Mali’s gold refining industry.
Impact: Terrorist groups in the Sahel have significantly expanded their footprint and operational control, having successfully suppressed the military juntas in countries such as Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, replacing them as the actual power brokers in the countries. JNIM’s activities in Mali have managed to completely diminish the junta’s abilities to military counter the terrorist group which additionally pressures the junta’s claim as the legitimate government in the country. Russian support hasn’t changed the security landscape as the Kremlin has overplayed its hand in the Sahel, promising substantial investments which are in most cases time consuming and underfunded, while Russia’s efforts continue to be largely focused on the war in Ukraine. Mali’s governing military junta lacks the military capacities to combat terrorist threats from sophisticated groups such as JNIM which indicates that without foreign support, Mali’s government would unlikely be able to lift the fuel blockade. The country’s ailing economy catalyzed by the energy crisis would continue to deteriorate without concrete and conclusive action against large terrorist groups in the region, further deteriorating the economy, imploding civil outrage and crippling the security in the country.